TEX⇄SDP

TEXTEX Tom Grieve net +$0.8M net +0.5

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $24M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 1991 odds 17% → 19% (+1.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mark ParentC·29y·R/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $24M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.38/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.63 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP Jack McKeon net −$0.8M net -0.5

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $26M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 1991 odds 26% → 24% (-2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Scott Coolbaugh3B·25y·R/R

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $26M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

Composite #94.0 pedigree (Baseball America #94 (1990)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.22/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.6/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

-0.02/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.