SFG⇄SEA

SFGSFG Farhan Zaidi net +$2.4M net +0.1

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $30M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.5 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 2022 odds 22% → 22% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Andy ThomasC·24y·L/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#144 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Michael StryffelerP·26y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Jerry Dipoto net −$2.4M net -0.1

received +$11.2M+$0.8M ± $15M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 2.7 ± 2 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2022 odds 28% → 28% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matt BoydP·31y·L/L

+$9.7M−$0.2M± $12M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.2/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

1.41/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Curt CasaliC·33y·R/R

+$1.4M+$1.4M± $9M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.7± 1 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.66/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.