NYY⇄PHI

NYYNYY Gene Michael net +$15.2M net +3.9

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $20M expected surplus · +$13.6M realized received 0.4 ± 2 expected · 3.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 1992 odds 15% → 23% (+7.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Charlie Hayes3B·27y·R/R

−$0.2M−$0.2M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$13.6M 0.4± 2 exp WARrealized 3.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.14/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

PHIPHI Lee Thomas net −$15.2M net -3.9

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $34M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.0 ± 4 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 1992 odds 10% → 6% (-3.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Darrin ChapinP·26y·R/R

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $34M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.0± 4 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.0/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.19/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.