KCR⇄LAD

KCRKCR Herk Robinson net +$56.8M net +8.1

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $16M expected surplus · +$56.8M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 8.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 1996 odds 2% → 4% (+1.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

José Offerman2B/SS·27y·B/R

+$3.5M+$3.5M± $16M exp surplusrealized +$56.8M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 8.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.58/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

LADLAD Fred Claire net −$56.8M net -8.1

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $17M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 1996 odds 19% → 13% (-6.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Billy BrewerP·28y·L/L

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $17M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

-0.06/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.