SFG⇄SEA

SFGSFG Brian Sabean net +$0.0M net +0.1

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $36M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.0 ± 4 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 2007 odds 3% → 3% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Travis BlackleyP·24y·L/L

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $36M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.0± 4 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -3.7/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

-0.05/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Bill Bavasi net +$0.0M net -0.1

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $14M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.3 ± 2 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2007 odds 6% → 6% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jason EllisonOF·29y·R/R

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.3± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.13/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.56 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.