ATL⇄CLE

ATLATL Bobby Cox net +$6.4M net +0.3

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $33M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 1988 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tommy KurczewskiP·21y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $33M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#73 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE Hank Peters net −$6.4M net -0.3

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $30M expected surplus · −$6.4M realized received 0.5 ± 4 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 1988 odds 5% → 4% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeff DedmonP·28y·L/R

+$0.4M+$0.4M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 0.5± 4 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.18/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.