TEX⇄OAK

TEXTEX John Hart net +$4.0M net +2.1

received +$24.8M+$24.8M ± $50M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 7.5 ± 6 expected · 1.8 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Mario RamosP·24y·L/L

+$12.2M+$12.2M± $37M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 3.4± 5 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

Composite #49.0 prospect (Baseball America #49 (2002)) → 0.61/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.61/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Jason HartOF·24y·R/R

+$6.2M+$6.2M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.6± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

Composite #59.0 prospect (Baseball America #59 (2001)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.29/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.29/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Ryan LudwickOF·23y·R/L

+$4.2M+$4.2M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.3± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

Composite #81.0 prospect (Baseball America #81 (2001)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.24/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.24/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Gerald LairdC·22y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$5.6M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 2.4

Prior

#45 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Billy Beane net −$4.0M net -2.1

received +$32.0M+$32.0M ± $43M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 9.4 ± 5 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Carlos Peña1B·24y·L/L

+$25.8M+$25.8M± $35M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 7.8± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

Composite #5.0 pedigree (Baseball America #5 (2002)) → 1.49/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

1.41/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Mike VenafroP·28y·L/L

+$5.8M+$5.8M± $26M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 1.6± 3 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.52/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.