LAD⇄TEX

LADLAD Al Campanis net +$1.6M net +0.2

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $30M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 1988 odds 39% → 40% (+1.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Javier OrtizOF·25y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

TEXTEX Tom Grieve net −$1.6M net -0.2

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $28M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.1 ± 4 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 1988 odds 4% → 4% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Scott MayP·26y·R/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $28M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.1± 4 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.