BOS⇄PIT

BOSBOS Lou Gorman net +$0.8M net +0.4

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $49M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 0.0 ± 6 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 1993 odds 24% → 26% (+1.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeff RichardsonSS·27y·R/R

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $49M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 0.0± 6 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

#176 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.2/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

-0.02/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Ted Simmons net −$0.8M net -0.4

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $14M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 1993 odds 5% → 4% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Daryl IrvineP·28y·R/R

−$2.6M−$2.6M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.07/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.60 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.