ATL⇄KCR

ATLATL John Schuerholz net +$22.4M net +5.0

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $30M expected surplus · +$22.4M realized received 0.0 ± 4 expected · 5.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2006 odds 12% → 17% (+5.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matt DiazOF·28y·R/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$22.4M 0.0± 4 exp WARrealized 5.0

Prior

#505 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.9/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

-0.19/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR Allard Baird net −$22.4M net -5.0

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2006 odds 1% → 1% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ricardo Rodriguez

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.