ANA⇄ARI

ANAANA Bill Stoneman net +$3.2M net +1.2

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $18M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 2.1 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2006 odds 32% → 33% (+0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jason BulgerP·27y·R/R

+$6.5M+$6.5M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 2.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#22 overall draft pick → 0.50/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.44/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.88 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Josh Byrnes net −$3.2M net -1.2

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · −$8.0M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · -1.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2006 odds 6% → 6% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Alberto Callaspo2B/3B·23y·B/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$8.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -1.2

Prior

Composite #71.0 prospect (Baseball America #71 (2004)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.