NYM⇄OAK⇄LAD

NYMNYM Frank Cashen net +$32.0M net +4.5

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $51M expected surplus · +$16.8M realized received 3.6 ± 6 expected · 4.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 1988 odds 96% → 96% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kevin TapaniP·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#40 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Wally WhitehurstP·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$18.4M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized 4.3

Prior

#65 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Jack SavageP·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $29M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#194 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.22/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Sandy Alderson net +$83.2M net +0.5

received +$132.0M+$132.0M ± $39M expected surplus · +$80.0M realized received 11.9 ± 5 expected · 8.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 1988 odds 82% → 85% (+3.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Bob WelchP·31y·R/R

+$118.5M+$118.5M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$85.6M 8.4± 4 exp WARrealized 9.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.6/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

2.95/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Matt YoungP·29y·L/L

+$13.3M+$13.3M± $28M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 3.5± 4 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.8/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

1.21/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

LADLAD Al Campanis net −$115.2M net -5.0

received +$33.6M+$33.6M ± $43M expected surplus · −$35.2M realized received 5.4 ± 5 expected · 3.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 1988 odds 48% → 40% (-8.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jesse OroscoP·31y·R/L

+$15.5M+$15.5M± $25M exp surplusrealized −$15.2M 1.7± 3 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.74/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.78 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Jay HowellP·32y·R/R

+$9.5M+$9.5M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$19.2M 1.1± 3 exp WARrealized 6.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.55/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.68 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Alfredo GriffinSS·30y·B/R

+$8.7M+$8.7M± $27M exp surplusrealized −$39.2M 2.6± 3 exp WARrealized -1.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.5/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

0.99/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.89 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.