NYM⇄PIT

NYMNYM Jim Duquette net +$12.8M net +4.7

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $26M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 3.4 ± 3 expected · 2.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2004 odds 1% → 2% (+0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kris BensonP·29y·R/R

+$2.5M+$2.5M± $15M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 2.2± 2 exp WARrealized 2.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 1.15/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.7/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

1.49/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Jeff Keppinger2B·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#114 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Dave Littlefield net −$12.8M net -4.7

received +$11.2M+$11.2M ± $38M expected surplus · −$18.4M realized received 4.7 ± 5 expected · -2.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2004 odds 2% → 2% (-0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matt Peterson#88P·22y·R/R

+$8.3M+$8.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.5± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

Composite #88.0 prospect (Baseball America #88 (2004)) → 0.42/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.42/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

José BautistaOF·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$12.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -1.1

Prior

#599 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Ty Wigginton1B/3B·26y·R/R

+$1.5M+$1.5M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 1.0± 3 exp WARrealized -1.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.20/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.