NYM⇄SDP

NYMNYM Frank Cashen net +$4.8M net +0.7

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $13M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 1992 odds 3% → 3% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Steve RosenbergP·27y·L/L

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $13M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#106 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

-0.00/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP Joe McIlvaine net −$4.8M net -0.7

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $37M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 0.0 ± 5 expected · -0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 1992 odds 52% → 51% (-0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeff Gardner2B·28y·L/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $37M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 0.0± 5 exp WARrealized -0.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -4.8/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

-0.13/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.