STL⇄ANA

STLSTL Walt Jocketty net +$3.2M net +0.3

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $27M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.5 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 1996 odds 24% → 25% (+1.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ben VanRynP·24y·L/L

+$3.4M+$3.4M± $27M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.5± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#37 overall draft pick → 0.26/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.26/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Bill Bavasi net −$3.2M net -0.3

received −$0.8M−$3.2M ± $6M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.1 ± 1 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 1996 odds 2% → 2% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Pat BordersC·33y·R/R

−$1.1M−$2.9M± $6M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.1± 1 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.13/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.67 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.