MIA⇄NYM

MIAMIA Dave Dombrowski net +$12.0M net +1.7

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $28M expected surplus · +$25.6M realized received 1.2 ± 4 expected · 4.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 1995 odds 9% → 12% (+3.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Quilvio Veras2B·24y·B/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$25.6M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized 4.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Joe McIlvaine net −$12.0M net -1.7

received +$15.2M+$15.2M ± $27M expected surplus · +$13.6M realized received 3.0 ± 3 expected · 2.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 1995 odds 16% → 12% (-4.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Carl EverettOF·24y·B/R

+$14.9M+$14.9M± $27M exp surplusrealized +$13.6M 3.0± 3 exp WARrealized 2.4

Prior

#10 overall draft pick → 0.62/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.54/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.