ATL⇄TEX

ATLATL John Schuerholz net +$0.8M net +0.2

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $19M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2002 odds 46% → 47% (+1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Andy PrattP·22y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#263 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

TEXTEX John Hart net −$0.8M net -0.2

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $19M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2002 odds 5% → 5% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ben KozlowskiP·21y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#384 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.