KCR⇄SEA

KCRKCR John Schuerholz net +$8.0M net +0.9

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $14M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Ken Spratke

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Dick Balderson net −$8.0M net -0.9

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $42M expected surplus · −$8.0M realized received 0.3 ± 5 expected · -0.9 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Dave CochraneOF·25y·B/R

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $42M exp surplusrealized −$8.0M 0.3± 5 exp WARrealized -0.9

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.2/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.05/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.