WSN⇄SFG

WSNWSN Dan Duquette net +$23.2M net +4.9

received +$8.8M+$8.8M ± $28M expected surplus · +$23.2M realized received 2.5 ± 4 expected · 4.9 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Gil HerediaP·26y·R/R

+$8.8M+$8.8M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$23.2M 2.5± 4 exp WARrealized 4.9

Prior

#230 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.8/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.47/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SFGSFG Al Rosen net −$23.2M net -4.9

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $33M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Brett Jenkins3B·22y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $33M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#243 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.