CIN⇄MIA

CINCIN Jim Bowden net +$0.8M net +0.0

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $21M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Manuel BarriosP·24y·R/R

−$2.6M−$2.6M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.3/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.05/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

MIAMIA Dave Dombrowski net −$0.8M net +0.0

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $19M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.3 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Guillermo GarciaC·27y·R/R

+$1.0M+$1.0M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.3± 2 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.27/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.85 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.