MIA⇄TEX

MIAMIA Dave Dombrowski net +$31.2M net +4.3

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $6M expected surplus · +$31.2M realized received 0.3 ± 1 expected · 4.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2000 odds 2% → 4% (+2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chuck SmithP·30y·R/R

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$31.2M 0.3± 1 exp WARrealized 4.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

4.4 control yrs × 0.31 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TEXTEX Douglas Melvin net −$31.2M net -4.3

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $25M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2000 odds 2% → 1% (-1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brant BrownOF·29y·L/L

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $25M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

-0.03/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.