TEX⇄STL

TEXTEX Tom Grieve net +$7.2M net +1.0

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $30M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.2 ± 4 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 1993 odds 15% → 19% (+3.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Duff BrumleyP·22y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#632 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

STLSTL Dal Maxvill net −$7.2M net -1.0

received +$3.2M+$2.4M ± $11M expected surplus · −$8.8M realized received 0.8 ± 1 expected · -1.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 1993 odds 24% → 19% (-4.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Todd BurnsP·29y·R/R

+$3.0M+$2.3M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$8.8M 0.8± 1 exp WARrealized -1.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

0.52/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.