NYY⇄TOR

NYYNYY Bob Quinn net +$73.6M net +3.0

received +$71.2M+$71.2M ± $16M expected surplus · +$95.2M realized received 6.6 ± 2 expected · 9.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 1989 odds 4% → 10% (+5.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jesse BarfieldOF·29y·R/R

+$71.4M+$71.4M± $16M exp surplusrealized +$95.2M 6.6± 2 exp WARrealized 9.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.9/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

3.29/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

TORTOR Pat Gillick net −$73.6M net -3.0

received +$12.0M+$12.0M ± $57M expected surplus · +$21.6M realized received 3.4 ± 7 expected · 6.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 1989 odds 82% → 65% (-16.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Al LeiterP·23y·L/L

+$12.2M+$12.2M± $57M exp surplusrealized +$21.6M 3.4± 7 exp WARrealized 6.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.5/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.61/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.