NYM⇄TEX

NYMNYM Jim Duquette net +$2.4M net +0.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2004 odds 2% → 2% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Josh Hoffpauir2B·26y·L/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#1651 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TEXTEX John Hart net −$2.4M net -0.1

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $8M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.0 ± 1 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2004 odds 13% → 13% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Scott EricksonP·36y·R/R

+$3.6M+$3.6M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.0± 1 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.7/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.97/yr blended

Horizon

1.1 control yr × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.