WSN⇄TOR

WSNWSN Murray Cook net +$77.6M net +9.3

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $24M expected surplus · +$77.6M realized received 1.1 ± 3 expected · 9.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 1985 odds 18% → 23% (+5.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mitch WebsterOF·26y·B/L

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$77.6M 1.1± 3 exp WARrealized 9.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TORTOR Pat Gillick net −$77.6M net -9.3

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $26M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 1985 odds 74% → 67% (-6.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Cliff YoungP·20y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.