SDP⇄SEA

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net +$3.2M net +0.8

received +$8.0M+$8.0M ± $30M expected surplus · +$3.2M realized received 2.9 ± 4 expected · 0.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2005 odds 26% → 29% (+3.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Miguel OlivoC·26y·R/R

+$7.8M+$7.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$3.2M 2.9± 4 exp WARrealized 0.9

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.71/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Bill Bavasi net −$3.2M net -0.8

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $21M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.1 ± 3 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2005 odds 2% → 1% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Miguel OjedaC·30y·R/R

+$5.0M+$5.0M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.9± 2 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.4/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

0.66/yr blended

Horizon

4.4 control yrs × 0.66 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Natanael Mateo

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.