MIN⇄DET

MINMIN Andy MacPhail net +$1.6M net +0.1

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $40M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 5 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 1988 odds 54% → 54% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Balvino GálvezP·24y·R/R

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $40M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 5 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.4/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

-0.04/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Bill Lajoie net −$1.6M net -0.1

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $43M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.0 ± 5 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 1988 odds 26% → 26% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Billy BeaneOF·26y·R/R

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $43M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.0± 5 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.3/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

-0.19/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.