PHI⇄BOS

PHIPHI Ed Wade net +$4.0M net +0.0

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $21M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.6 ± 3 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 2003 odds 58% → 59% (+1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Josh HancockP·25y·R/R

+$3.8M+$3.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.6± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#103 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.3/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.29/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Mike Port net −$4.0M net +0.0

received +$8.8M+$8.8M ± $18M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 1.9 ± 2 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2003 odds 95% → 95% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeremy GiambiDH/OF·28y·L/L

+$8.9M+$8.9M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 1.9± 2 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.4/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

0.94/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.