DET⇄MIL

DETDET Randy Smith net +$12.0M net +2.4

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $25M expected surplus · +$4.8M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 2.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 1998 odds 4% → 6% (+1.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Bryce FlorieP·28y·R/R

+$4.5M+$4.5M± $25M exp surplusrealized +$4.8M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 2.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

0.42/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

MILMIL Sal Bando net −$12.0M net -2.4

received +$12.0M+$12.0M ± $43M expected surplus · −$7.2M realized received 4.6 ± 5 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 1998 odds 3% → 2% (-0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rick GreeneP·27y·R/R

+$11.7M+$11.7M± $34M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 3.1± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#16 overall draft pick → 0.61/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.61/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Santiago PérezSS/OF·22y·B/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $24M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Mike MyersP·29y·L/L

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 0.3± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

0.13/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.50 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.