BAL⇄SEA

BALBAL Hank Peters net −$0.8M net +0.5

received +$88.0M+$88.0M ± $35M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 8.3 ± 4 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 1988 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike MorganP·28y·R/R

+$88.2M+$88.2M± $35M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 8.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.8/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

2.12/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Dick Balderson net +$0.8M net -0.5

received +$11.2M+$11.2M ± $30M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.8 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 1988 odds 10% → 9% (-0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ken DixonP·27y·B/R

+$11.5M+$11.5M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.8± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.59/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.