CLE⇄BAL

CLECLE John Hart net +$86.4M net +10.0

received +$20.8M+$20.8M ± $48M expected surplus · +$86.4M realized received 3.1 ± 6 expected · 10.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 1992 odds 4% → 5% (+1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

José MesaP·26y·R/R

+$20.5M+$20.5M± $48M exp surplusrealized +$86.4M 3.1± 6 exp WARrealized 10.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.63/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Roland Hemond net −$86.4M net -10.0

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $33M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 1992 odds 63% → 58% (-5.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kyle WashingtonOF·22y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $33M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#156 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.