COL⇄WSN

COLCOL Bob Gebhard net +$6.4M net +1.0

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $14M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.4 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 1994 odds 0% → 0% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ivan Arteaga

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Rod Pedraza

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

WSNWSN Dan Duquette net −$6.4M net -1.0

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $25M expected surplus · −$6.4M realized received 0.8 ± 3 expected · -1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 1994 odds 94% → 92% (-2.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Freddie Benavides2B/SS·28y·R/R

+$1.0M+$1.0M± $25M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 0.8± 3 exp WARrealized -1.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.23/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.89 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.