LAD⇄DET

LADLAD Andrew Friedman net +$17.6M net +2.8

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $8M expected surplus · +$17.6M realized received 0.4 ± 1 expected · 2.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2022 odds 99% → 99% (+0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Trayce ThompsonOF·31y·R/R

−$0.3M−$0.3M± $8M exp surplusrealized +$17.6M 0.4± 1 exp WARrealized 2.8

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.27/yr blended

Horizon

3.9 control yrs × 0.39 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Sam Menzin net −$17.6M net -2.8

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 2022 odds 0% → 0% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.