TEX⇄NYY

TEXTEX Tom Grieve net −$4.8M net +0.4

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $18M expected surplus · −$9.6M realized received 0.7 ± 2 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 1988 odds 4% → 4% (-0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Cecilio GuanteP·28y·R/R

+$1.5M+$1.5M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$9.6M 0.7± 2 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

0.24/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

NYYNYY Lou Piniella net +$4.8M net -0.4

received +$12.8M+$12.8M ± $18M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 1.4 ± 2 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 1988 odds 8% → 9% (+1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dale MohorcicP·32y·R/R

+$12.7M+$12.7M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 1.4± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.0/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.64/yr blended

Horizon

3.3 control yrs × 0.67 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.