MIN⇄BOS

MINMIN Terry Ryan net +$6.4M net +0.2

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $34M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 2.6 ± 4 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 1998 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

John BarnesOF·22y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $24M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#121 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Matt KinneyP·21y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $24M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#158 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Joe Thomas

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Dan Duquette net −$6.4M net -0.2

received +$30.4M+$24.0M ± $26M expected surplus · −$9.6M realized received 4.7 ± 3 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 1998 odds 78% → 77% (-1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Orlando Merced1B/OF·31y·B/R

+$27.0M+$25.1M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 3.1± 3 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.2/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

2.10/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Greg SwindellP·33y·R/L

+$3.4M−$1.1M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 1.6± 2 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.41/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.5/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

1.13/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.