CHW⇄MIL

CHWCHW Larry Himes net +$6.4M net +0.3

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $30M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.2 ± 4 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 1989 odds 1% → 1% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brian DrahmanP·22y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

MILMIL Harry Dalton net −$6.4M net -0.3

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $0M expected surplus · −$8.8M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 1989 odds 3% → 3% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jerry ReussP·40y·L/L

−$1.8M−$1.8M± $0M exp surplusrealized −$8.8M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

1.13/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.