WSN⇄NYM

WSNWSN Kevin Malone net +$16.8M net +5.1

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $10M expected surplus · +$16.0M realized received 0.0 ± 1 expected · 5.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 1995 odds 4% → 5% (+1.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

David Segui1B·28y·B/L

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$16.0M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized 5.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

-0.09/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Joe McIlvaine net −$16.8M net -5.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $28M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.2 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 1995 odds 16% → 12% (-4.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Reid CorneliusP·25y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $28M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#284 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.