SEA⇄NYM

SEASEA Dick Balderson net +$3.2M net +0.2

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $18M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.9 ± 2 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 1988 odds 8% → 9% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Gene WalterP·27y·L/L

+$2.6M+$2.6M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.9± 2 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.29/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Frank Cashen net −$3.2M net -0.2

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $18M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 0.5 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 1988 odds 96% → 96% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ed NúñezP·25y·R/R

+$0.4M+$0.4M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 0.5± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

0.18/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.