CHW⇄PHI

CHWCHW Ron Schueler net +$0.8M net +0.1

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $19M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.8 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 1997 odds 4% → 5% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Gene Schall1B·27y·R/R

+$0.5M+$0.5M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.8± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#109 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.18/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.89 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

PHIPHI Lee Thomas net −$0.8M net -0.1

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $23M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.7 ± 3 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 1997 odds 1% → 1% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike Robertson1B/DH/OF·26y·L/L

−$0.8M−$0.8M± $23M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.7± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#98 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.4/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.13/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.93 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.