NYM⇄SFG

NYMNYM Sandy Alderson net +$121.6M net +12.0

received +$20.8M+$20.8M ± $45M expected surplus · +$124.0M realized received 5.2 ± 6 expected · 13.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2011 odds 7% → 6% (-1.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Zack WheelerP·21y·L/R

+$21.0M+$21.0M± $45M exp surplusrealized +$124.0M 5.2± 6 exp WARrealized 13.0

Prior

#6 overall draft pick → 0.95/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.95/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SFGSFG Brian Sabean net −$121.6M net -12.0

received +$36.8M+$36.8M ± $13M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 3.2 ± 2 expected · 1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 2011 odds 16% → 20% (+3.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Carlos BeltránOF·34y·B/R

+$36.6M+$36.6M± $13M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 3.2± 2 exp WARrealized 1.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 5.1/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

3.22/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.