BAL⇄SDP

BALBAL Pat Gillick net −$3.2M net +0.1

received −$3.2M−$4.0M ± $6M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.1 ± 1 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 1998 odds 47% → 48% (+0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Pete SmithP·32y·R/R

−$3.4M−$4.1M± $6M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.1± 1 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.0/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.10/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.67 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net +$3.2M net -0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $5M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 1998 odds 33% → 33% (-0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Eric Estes

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.