SFG⇄ATL

SFGSFG Tom Haller net −$4.8M net +0.4

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $44M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 1.0 ± 6 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 1985 odds 1% → 1% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Alex TreviñoC·27y·R/R

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $44M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 1.0± 6 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.82 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

ATLATL John Mullen net +$4.8M net -0.4

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $26M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 1985 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

John RabbC·25y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $26M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.