COL⇄ANA

COLCOL Daniel O'Dowd net +$54.4M net +2.9

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $30M expected surplus · +$37.6M realized received 1.1 ± 4 expected · 5.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2012 odds 1% → 1% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tyler ChatwoodP·22y·R/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$37.6M 1.1± 4 exp WARrealized 5.8

Prior

Composite #76.0 pedigree (Baseball America #76 (2011)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.24/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.20/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Jerry Dipoto net −$54.4M net -2.9

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $8M expected surplus · −$16.8M realized received 0.8 ± 1 expected · 2.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2012 odds 65% → 64% (-1.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chris IannettaC·29y·R/R

+$1.4M+$1.4M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$16.8M 0.8± 1 exp WARrealized 2.9

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

0.81/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.