WSN⇄CLE

WSNWSN Dan Duquette net +$4.0M net +0.0

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $30M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.4 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

J. J. ThobeP·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $29M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

#182 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Dave Duplessis

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE John Hart net −$4.0M net +0.0

received +$23.2M+$23.2M ± $38M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 3.5 ± 5 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Chris NabholzP·27y·L/L

+$23.0M+$23.0M± $38M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 3.5± 5 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

#49 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.7/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

1.16/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.