SEA⇄BOS

SEASEA Woody Woodward net +$4.0M net +0.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $23M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 1999 odds 4% → 4% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Robert RamsayP·25y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $23M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#211 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Dan Duquette net −$4.0M net -0.1

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $23M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 1.4 ± 3 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 1999 odds 82% → 81% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Butch HuskeyOF·27y·R/R

+$6.7M+$6.7M± $23M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 1.4± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

0.45/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.