LAD⇄CLE

LADLAD Fred Claire net +$5.6M net +0.6

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $28M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.0 ± 4 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 1992 odds 1% → 1% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rudy SeánezP·23y·R/R

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $28M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.0± 4 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

#83 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.5/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

-0.05/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE Hank Peters net −$5.6M net -0.6

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $29M expected surplus · −$8.0M realized received 1.3 ± 4 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 1992 odds 5% → 5% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dennis CookP·29y·L/L

+$1.5M+$1.5M± $17M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 0.7± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#446 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

0.29/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.84 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Mike ChristopherP·28y·R/R

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $23M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.6± 3 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#181 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.19/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.59 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.