SFG⇄HOU

SFGSFG Bob Quinn net +$6.4M net +1.7

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $14M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 3.0 ± 2 expected · 2.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 1996 odds 1% → 2% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rick WilkinsC·29y·L/R

+$4.7M+$4.7M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 3.0± 2 exp WARrealized 2.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.3/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

2.01/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

HOUHOU Gerry Hunsicker net −$6.4M net -1.7

received −$1.6M−$8.8M ± $14M expected surplus · −$7.2M realized received 1.7 ± 2 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 1996 odds 17% → 14% (-3.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kirt ManwaringC·30y·R/R

−$1.3M−$8.6M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$7.2M 1.7± 2 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.23/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.7/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

1.16/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.