BAL⇄MIN

BALBAL Hank Peters net +$0.8M net +0.5

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $26M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 1985 odds 23% → 23% (-0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brad HavensP·25y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

MINMIN Howard Fox net −$0.8M net -0.5

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $26M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 1985 odds 12% → 12% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mark BrownP·25y·B/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $26M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.