LAD⇄DET

LADLAD Fred Claire net +$3.2M net +0.2

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $11M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Mike Wilkins

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $11M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Bill Lajoie net −$3.2M net -0.2

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $40M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.8 ± 5 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Mike MunozP·24y·L/L

−$0.3M−$0.3M± $40M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.8± 5 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#74 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.7/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.14/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.