TEX⇄NYM

TEXTEX Chris Young net −$45.6M net +0.7

received −$43.2M−$43.2M ± $0M expected surplus · −$41.6M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 1.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2023 odds 81% → 85% (+3.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Max ScherzerP·38y·R/R

−$43.0M−$43.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized −$41.6M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 1.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.30/yr

Evidence

recent form 5.7/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

3.90/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Billy Eppler net +$45.6M net -0.7

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $20M expected surplus · +$4.0M realized received 2.6 ± 2 expected · 1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2023 odds 7% → 6% (-1.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Luisangel Acuña2B/SS·21y·R/R

+$6.8M+$6.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$4.0M 2.6± 2 exp WARrealized 1.0

Prior

Composite #71.0 prospect (MLB Pipeline #71 (2023)) → 0.46/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.46/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.